Russia 2032 Scenarios: A Decade Post Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine

Russia 2032 Scenarios: A Decade Post Full–Scale Invasion of Ukraine. PERSPECTIVES FROM A NEIGHBOR WHO KNOWS TOO WELL

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a defining moment in modern international politics. It fundamentally reshaped the West’s perception of Russia and called into question the stability of the global order. Amid growing turbulence, there is an urgent need for strategic reflection on possible scenarios for Russia’s evolution and its impact on the security architecture of Europe and the world at large.

In response to this challenge, a group of Ukrainian researchers, analysts, and practitioners conducted a comprehensive scenario-based analysis aimed at outlining the most likely trajectories of Russia’s transformation through 2032.

This study presents four potential meta-scenarios for Russia’s future, along with three strategic approaches of how the West might engage with the country. The publication highlights the deep interdependence between Western policies and Russia’s trajectory, emphasizing that decisive and coordinated Western actions can and must shape the direction Russia takes. It also challenges several entrenched perceptions of Russia and critically reassesses traditional fears prevalent among Western audiences.

Each scenario is accompanied by an in-depth analysis of the political, economic, societal, and security implications for Ukraine, Europe, and the broader international community.