What will Russia look like in 2032? What challenges will it pose to Europe and the world? And most importantly, what can the West do today to prevent a negative turn of events?
On May 14-15, Olena Davlikanova, Senior Expert at Sahaidachnyi Security Center, presented research on future scenarios for Russia during the Workshop on Security and Strategy in the Baltic Sea Region 2025 in Riga. The event, organized by the Swedish Defence University, gathered key civilian and military leaders from Sweden and the Baltic countries.
The main objectives of the workshop were to improve doctrinal, cognitive, and cultural interoperability; assess the security situation in the Baltic Sea region, including hybrid threats; strengthen the professional defense and security network; and provide recommendations on strategic options to counter malicious activities.
Olena Davlikanova presented the results of the analytical study “Russia 2032 Scenarios: A Decade Post Full–Scale Invasion of Ukraine,” which models several possible trajectories of the Russian Federation’s transformation. The focus was not only on internal changes but also on how these scenarios could affect regional security and how the West would be able to react to them.
The culmination of the event was a simulation game where participants modeled their countries’ reactions to various scenarios of Russia’s development, taking into account challenges and opportunities, and also assessed the probability of each scenario’s realization.
You can read the research here: https://surl.li/pguxcr
