“Ukraine has managed to reverse the narrative that it was slowly losing the war.” Ukraine surprised everyone by crossing into Russian territory and gaining ground. The key question now is whether Ukraine can turn these short-term gains into a lasting strategic advantage, says Lesia Ogryzko, director of the Sahaidachnyi Security Center in Kyiv, in a telephone interview with PÚBLICO.
Since Ukraine’s counter-offensive last summer, which has been viewed by the West as less successful—though this is a highly debated topic given Ukraine’s successes in the Black Sea in summer 2023—there has been talk that Ukraine is losing the war. However, Ukraine has managed to shift this narrative with its recent offensive, as the success is undeniable. Ukrainian forces have captured and secured territory twice the size of what Russia has occupied since the start of the year. Essentially, this means that the entire Russian offensive in Donbas, along with its advances in the south and attempts to launch an offensive in the Kharkiv region, was only half as effective as a single Ukrainian operation that lasted just a few days. This fundamentally changes the narrative that Ukraine is losing the war and challenges the notion of Russia’s invincibility.
It also exposed all of Russia’s red lines as bluffs. Yet, Putin’s most effective weapon against the West so far has been his nuclear rhetoric and threats. Unfortunately, the West has largely fallen for these manipulative tactics, believing each time that new weapons deliveries would be seen as escalatory. This belief allowed Putin to buy time by delaying the delivery of weapons to Ukraine, which helped Russia consolidate its resources and continue its attacks.