The Ukrainian offensive in Kursk, which has been ongoing for several weeks, has taken both Russia and the West by surprise. This offensive has allowed Ukraine to gain a certain advantage and further expose the weaknesses of Vladimir Putin’s regime, highlighting its unpreparedness, said Lesia Ogryzko, director of the Sahaidachny Security Center, in an interview with LRT.lt.
“One of the strategic outcomes of Ukraine’s operation in Kursk was the destabilization of Russia internally. Ukraine has essentially shattered the understanding between the Russian government and the public, where the public was expected to support the ‘special military operation’ in exchange for Putin’s assurance that the war would never reach Russian soil. What we are witnessing now is a continuation of what we saw last summer after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s attempted coup. That event revealed the first cracks in Putin’s regime, showing that he does not fully control Russia or its elites. We are now seeing a similar situation, where some members of the Russian elite are beginning to doubt whether Putin can truly ensure Russia’s security and stability. While I believe the level of destabilization is not yet enough to change the internal situation in the country, when combined with other asymmetric actions, it could make Russians question Putin’s power and his control over the situation,” Ogryzko emphasized.
One aspect that many analysts have overlooked is that, in the last two weeks, many commentators who were previously sympathetic to Russia or had ties with Moscow have stopped advocating for a freeze in the war or immediate start of negotiations. We know that Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that any negotiations must reflect ‘the real situation on the battlefield.’ Ukraine’s position, however, has remained consistent: territorial integrity must be preserved before any negotiations can take place. Now, with recent changes to both Ukraine’s and Russia’s borders, Putin can no longer present his own ‘peace formula.’