Lesia Ogryzko, Director and Co-founder of the Sahaidachnyi Security Center, has written a new op-ed for The Kyiv Independent on what strategic victory for Ukraine should actually mean and why the prevailing models fall short.
The article argues that two dominant strategic concepts have reached their limits. The “steel porcupine” model of deterrence — which seeks to make aggression so costly that Russia is forced to stop — demands ever-greater sacrifices from Ukraine while offering no path to lasting peace. The alternative theory of “functional defeat” — constraining an adversary’s ability to use its military capability — has proven difficult to replicate beyond isolated successes like Ukraine’s campaign in the Black Sea.
Lesia Ogryzko’s central argument:
“At the Sahaidachnyi Security Center, we believe that a decisive victory means depriving Russia of the mere ability to wage war. This is what we call a ‘terminal defeat.'”
In the op-ed, Lesia Ogryzko explains this strategic framework in detail along two interrelated vectors:
- Termination — identifying and systematically exploiting critical vulnerabilities within the Russian Federation to produce cascading, irreversible effects. It calls for sustained pressure across Russia’s economy, technology base, and public perception, eroding its capacity to sustain the war along with the broader functioning of the state.
- Ukraine’s redefined defense — no longer an end in itself, but a means to hold the line, limit losses, and buy time while Russia’s war-making capacity breaks down. The priority shifts to protecting Ukrainian soldiers, keeping the front stable, and concentrating resources where they matter most.
This shift in logic demands accelerated doctrinal, organizational, and personnel reforms. Among the article’s key recommendations:
- Rapid robotization of front-line combat, with Unmanned Systems Forces growing well beyond the current 5% target;
- A clearer strategic framework for air defense, prioritizing anti-drone capabilities against Shahed, Geran, and Gerbera-class threats;
- A sustained program to relocate critical infrastructure underground, given the persistent scarcity of PAC-3 MSE interceptors;
- Greater protection for soldiers’ lives on the front line and immediately behind it.
For more insights, read the full article in The Kyiv Independent.