Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia have recently outnumbered Russian strikes on Ukraine — a reversal that would have seemed unlikely not long ago. This shift signals a fundamental transformation in how Russia’s war against Ukraine is being fought and what Ukrainian victory might actually look like. Ukraine has changed the very nature of the war, and victory now looks different.
In a recent interview with Explaining Ukraine, Sahaidachnyi Security Center Director Lesia Ogryzko joins host and renowned philosopher Volodymyr Yermolenko to examine what this reversal means, why Ukraine can win, and what still needs to happen to get there.
Throughout the episode, Lesia especially points to
- Ukraine’s battlefield innovation, and
- how Ukraine’s front line has become a live testing ground where drone tactics, electronic warfare, and strike systems evolve faster than traditional military structures can match.
In the interview, Lesia Ogryzko emphasizes that Ukraine cannot win a symmetrical war, as fighting as “a small Soviet army against a big Soviet army” is a losing proposition — Russia has more people, more artillery, and fewer political constraints on casualties.
Instead, Ukraine should aim for the concept of “terminal defeat” — the systematic destruction of Russia’s ability to wage war. Learn more about this concept here.
March 2026 marked a turning point: Ukrainian deep strikes outnumbered Russia’s for the first time, measurably impacting Russia’s oil refining and export capacity.
In the interview, Lesia Ogryzko also addresses European responses to Russian aggression, arguing that the West misunderstands deterrence and what is a real risk for triggering the full-scale conflict.
She also emphasized on a “golden opportunity“: a Ukraine-Europe wartime innovation partnership, where European factories would produce systems designed and validated on Ukrainian front lines, treating Ukraine as a co-developer rather than aid recipient.
Lesia Ogryzko poses an uncomfortable question to Western partners: are they finally ready to call things by their proper names? In her view, Ukrainian victory is impossible as long as the West treats this war as a manageable crisis rather than an existential threat to European security. And she adds: Ukraine’s asymmetric capabilities are no longer just an argument for supporting Ukraine. They’re proof of how democracies can defend themselves in modern warfare.
Listen to the full episode for more insights on these topics!