The analytical report “Stratagems for the Victory of Ukraine: The Concept of the Russian Federation’s Terminal Defeat in a High-Tech War of Attrition” reevaluates the strategic logic of achieving victory for Ukraine in an environment where previous conceptual frameworks have exhausted their utility.
Following more than four years of full-scale aggression—marked by a significantly eroded asymmetric advantage in unmanned systems, insufficient partner support, and Russia’s steady expansion of high-tech capabilities across all echelons—this study provides a constructive critique of the concepts of strategic deterrence and “functional defeat,” arguing that they are fundamentally inadequate. In their place, it proposes a model of “terminal defeat.” This approach pairs maximalist objectives—the complete structural dismantling of Russia’s warfighting capacity and the destruction of its aggressive regime—with a pragmatic assessment of Ukraine’s actual level of exhaustion and resource constraints.
To bridge the gap between strategic goals and available means, the report recommends prioritizing specific lines of effort where concentrating limited resources can trigger a chain reaction of qualitative changes and generate nonlinear gains in operational effectiveness. Externally, this is operationalized through two complementary vectors: the elimination vector, which targets the adversary’s critical vulnerabilities to initiate irreversible economic, technological, and cognitive degradation; and the deterrence vector, designed to hold the defensive perimeter and buy time to fully implement the elimination strategy. This approach entails a balanced allocation of resources between deep-strike capabilities and frontline requirements, the accelerated robotization of frontline combat functions, and the establishment of a continuous denial zone ensuring guaranteed lethality against the adversary.
Internally, the study operationalizes the primary lines of effort necessary to bring the state’s military apparatus to peak organizational and technological efficiency. Key priorities include fortifying national morale, optimizing force generation and military leadership structures, integrating artificial intelligence, fostering technological innovation, and securing the supply chain and component base for the defense-industrial complex.
The primary value of this report lies not in presenting yet another list of recommendations, but rather in providing a coherent operational logic that connects strategic objectives with concrete mechanisms for achieving them under severe constraints.
This analytical paper was prepared by the team of the Sahaidachnyi Security Center.