Will Russia test NATO’s eastern flank by 2029? That question — still contested across European societies — was at the heart of a panel where Sahaidachnyi Security Center’s Director Lesia Ogryzko recently participated.
On March 23–25, she participated in “Europe’s Defence in Debate: Mapping the Europe-Wide Discourse on Defence Policy amid Eroding Transatlantic Relations” — a high-level conference organized by Protestant Academy Loccum, one of Germany’s most respected socio-political forums.
The conference brought together scientists, think tankers, practitioners, and journalists from across Europe to assess the continent’s defence discourse. Central to the discussion were the concept of “Zeitenwende 2.0” — the idea that Europe must now prepare to defend itself without the US — and the broader question of European strategic autonomy.
Lesia Ogryzko participated in the panel “2029 – Or Even Earlier? How is a Potential Westward Aggression by Russia Discussed Across Europe?“. The panel focused on some of the most pressing questions in European security today:
- How realistic is the prospect of Russian military aggression against NATO?
- What are the key observations emerging from the Europe-wide debate on this issue?
- What findings and conclusions can be drawn so far?
- What are the key fault lines and actor constellations?
Lesia Ogryzko examined concrete scenarios of a potential Russian attack on NATO member states and the fault lines that shape how different societies assess that risk.
She noted:
“For Russia, the current moment is an opportunity: to deepen fractures in transatlantic unity, disrupt Western support for Ukraine, and strengthen its negotiating hand by putting the Baltics on the table. Europe’s response must be clear — stop Russia in Ukraine, develop a Russia strategy, rearm. And understand Putin’s logic: it is the logic of a mobster. You have to fight back.”
She also presented two Sahaidachnyi Security Center analytical tools:
- The Denied War — an analytical report on Russia’s grey-zone aggression against Europe, its internal logic, and likely trajectories;
- Everywhere War Tracker — a tool that maps Russia’s sub-threshold operations across Europe.
The discussion was part of a broader conference effort to map Europe’s defence discourse — its points of convergence, its fault lines, and what it will take to turn debate into reform.
We are grateful for the invitation and the opportunity to bring the Ukrainian perspective into the broader debate on Europe’s defence.
