A number of false narratives circulate around the Russian-Ukrainian war, which Russia consistently spreads at the international level. One of the most influential and simultaneously dangerous is the notion of the supposed inevitability of Russian victory. Such myths shape distorted expectations, reduce readiness for strategic decisions, and create additional risks for European security. In this context, Ukraine and its European partners should deepen coordination in countering such narratives, as their impact has practical and potentially very dangerous consequences.
In a recent interview with Silicon Curtain, Lesia Ogryzko, Head of the Sahaidachnyi Security Center, dismantled several persistent myths about Russian military capability and economic resilience. Her analysis reveals the cracks in Russia’s facade and the critical choices facing the world in 2026.
Here are the key takeaways from the conversation:
War fatigue is eroding some of the Western aid for Ukraine. This is partially due to the belief that Russia is invincible – a belief that has taken root despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary (e.g. Russia’s failure to capture the whole of Donbas since 2014; the depletion of nearly 90% of Russia’s pre-war army by 2023).
Meanwhile, Ukraine has achieved remarkable asymmetric victories, sinking 25% of the Russian fleet and destroying one-third of Russia’s strategic air fleet through Operation “Spiderweb.” that destroyed significant portions of Russia’s strategic capabilities. History also offers additional perspective: Russia has lost to smaller countries before, from the Crimean War to the Soviet-Afghan conflict.
The problem is not the strength of Ukraine’s case – it is the asymmetry in messaging.
“We do not have a tremendous propaganda machine both internally but also for the external world through which we can get all of these messages across,” Ogryzko observes. Regular citizens in Western countries, not having time for deep analysis, hear repeatedly that Russia is winning. Eventually, this thought takes hold.
Expert assessments by economists indicate that Russia’s economy experiencing significant imbalance between revenue and expenditures, driven by massive military spending and Western sanctions. Russia has exhausted most of its financial resources, with inflation approaching 20% and stagflation setting in.
“In 2026, Russia will be at a crossroads,” Ogryzko explains.“Either you feed your society or you have to feed the war machine.” These fractures create exploitable weak spots, but only if Western partners maintain strategic resolve rather than retreat to “business as usual” thinking.
Perhaps Ogryzko’s most urgent warning is “the everywhere war.” The newly launched hybrid warfare tracker by the Sahaidachnyi Security Center maps Russian sub-threshold (hybrid) operations against European and NATO countries since 2022. The data shows clear acceleration. The Russians do not distinguish between kinetic and hybrid warfare; it is all part of the same continuum. Yet many European countries remain unwilling to acknowledge that these operations constitute declarations of war.
Ogryzko also dismantles another persistent myth: that Russia invaded because Ukraine pursued NATO membership too aggressively. The chronology reveals the opposite. Ukraine enshrined its non-alignment status in 2010. Then in 2014, Russia attacked this neutral country. Only after being attacked did Ukraine’s parliament return to NATO integration. The pattern of Russian aggression stretches back decades – a strategic continuum the West failed to recognize early enough.
As we move deeper into 2026, Russia is bluffing about its economic strength in negotiations. Western powers possess leverage that could push Russia to the negotiating table, if properly deployed.
Watch the full interview with Silicon Curtain for deeper insights into these strategic challenges, along with Lesia Ogryzko’s book and film recommendations for understanding Ukraine’s role in shaping Europe’s future.