Якість проти кількості в політиці закупівель дронів ЄС. Використання виробничого потенціалу України для зміцнення оборонно-промислової бази Європи.

Публікація розкриває актуальні тенденції масового виробництва бойових безпілотників в ЄС. Успішний досвід децентралізованого масштабування в Україні у комбінації з європейськими ресурсами можуть гарантувати самозабезпечення у виробництві безпілотних систем на європейських теренах.

Далі – мовою оригіналу (англ.мова).

Problem Statement

The ongoing war in Ukraine has fundamentally transformed modern warfare, particularly through the widespread deployment of drones in three key operational domains: air, land, and maritime. Such a shift has exposed a critical vulnerability in European defence capabilities, as current drone production volumes fall dramatically short of operational requirements. This policy brief examines the critical gap between Europe’s current industrial capacity and its required capabilities. To address EU needs in this area, it advocates for strategic investment in the Ukrainian drone industry having demonstrated the ability to scale production to millions of units annually. Its success stems from a unique ecosystem that has enabled the development of a decentralized production model based on a distributed network of small-scale manufacturers, startups, and volunteer initiatives, allowing for rapid iteration and continuous improvement of designs based on real-world combat experience. 

Analysis

During 2023 – 2024 the battlefield has more cogently witnessed the divergence between two distinct yet equally vital drone segments, each serving specific purposes. The first one comprises mass-produced tactical and partly operational level drones that became essential disposable assets in day-to-day military operations. These relatively simple platforms have proven invaluable for reconnaissance, combat, and support missions within the 30-kilometer contact zone. The second segment consists of more sophisticated, high-technology systems designed for specialized missions, including precision strikes on critical infrastructure, multi-purpose weapons platforms, and advanced ISR and EW capabilities.

Ukraine’s experience has demonstrated that success in warfare requires mastery of both segments. However, the current European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) remains largely focused on producing small quantities of expensive systems. While the EU maintains high quality standards in drone manufacturing, its production volumes are inadequate for contemporary warfare needs, especially against the backdrop of potential competitors like China and Russia manufacturing hundreds of thousands to millions of units annually. Without immediate and dramatic changes, Europe risks disadvantages in future conflicts.

The European drone industry currently faces three critical challenges: insufficient production volume, high unit costs, and limited-to-no battlefield experience. Worthy of note, in the drone era the concept of mass production has evolved significantly from its traditional understanding. Modern drone manufacturing requires continuous adaptation and innovation at every stage of production. Unlike the historical pattern of completed R&D followed by years of virtually unchanged production, today’s warfare reality demands constant technological evolution to meet emerging battlefield requirements. The critical challenge facing the EU defence preparedness lies in industrial capacity – specifically, the ability to rapidly establish mass production capacities. Modern requirements dictate that such production must be highly decentralized and economically efficient.

*Primarily those by the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and NATO (incl. STANAG 4671).

The Ukrainian Growth Landscape

Ukraine’s drone production capacity is now supported by a robust ecosystem of over 500 companies engaged in combat drone manufacturing throughout Ukraine. It  has undergone extraordinary expansion, with domestic manufacturers supplying 96.2% of all UAVs used by Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) in 2024, producing over 1.5 million first-person-view (FPV) drones that year alone. Such production surge reflects battlefield requirements where a typical Ukrainian brigade deploys a dedicated drone strike company equipped with FPV systems, while battalions maintain specialized small UAV reconnaissance and munitions-dropping elements, with daily operational needs varying significantly based on combat intensity. Effective brigades report they need 7.000-8500 strike fpv-drones per month to operate in full might. The scale is impressive: UAF increased monthly drone acquisition from 20,000 units in early 2024 to approximately 200,000 by year’s end, with projections indicating production capacity will reach 2.5 million military drones in 2025, with the capacity to produce 4 million annually.

The backbone of this production miracle is Ukraine’s decentralized manufacturing network that spans from formal enterprises to grassroots initiatives. This ecosystem includes kitchen laboratories where civilians with online training contribute to national production targets, creating a distributed manufacturing model that proved remarkably resilient to Russian targeting. The production infrastructure now encompasses specialized facilities for various drone types: reconnaissance platforms, kamikaze aircraft, copter-bombers, and long-range systems, with plans to manufacture 30,000 long-range drones this year. This output exceeds that of any NATO member, including the United States.

*Key players in the market include Airbus (France/Germany), BAE Systems (UK), Leonardo (Italy), Thales (France), Saab (Sweden), Quantum Systems (Germany) and others, as well as more agile and rapidly adapting to the modern scalability needs players like AI-powered Helsing (Germany).

Strategic Implications for EU

The Ukrainian experience offers valuable lessons for developing a robust and adaptable drone manufacturing ecosystem for the European defence forces preparing to defend against adversaries willing to accept high personnel losses. A proven template combines formal industrial production with nimble, distributed networks that can rapidly iterate designs based on combat feedback, while maintaining production rates of approximately 2 million drones annually to sustain modern drone-centric warfare. 

European defense planners should consider a brigade-level requirement of thousands of FPV drones monthly, supported by hundreds of reconnaissance platforms to maintain battlefield superiority against numerically superior forces. The Ukrainian model shows that AI integration multiplies drone effectiveness significantly, with systems trained on classified battlefield data providing critical advantages. 

However, sustainable implementation requires systematic industrial transformation and significant economic investment. The EU has to consider how to effectively integrate and scale Ukraine’s successful approaches while addressing long-term sustainability challenges.

While this strategy is on the way, a more expedient and pragmatic “quick-win” approach lies in strategic investment in Ukraine’s existing drone production capacity, which has already demonstrated efficiency and scalability. By channeling European investment into Ukraine’s proven cutting-edge manufacturers, with particular emphasis on scaling “success stories”, the EU can rapidly address its defence requirements while simultaneously strengthening Ukraine’s defence capabilities. This approach offers immediate tangible benefits: access to battle-tested designs, established production networks, and operational expertise that would take years to develop independently. 

A critical aspect of this strategy is reducing component dependence from China, a challenge equally relevant for Europe. Much of drone components are now manufactured domestically in Ukraine or exported from other Asian states, with remaining dependencies being actively addressed. This capability could be scaled significantly with European partnership support, leading to complete self-sufficiency.

The time for action is immediate, as the evolution of drone warfare continues to accelerate. Developing an integrated European-Ukrainian drone production network that leverages Ukraine’s expertise in rapid scaling and battlefield testing while incorporating European quality standards, advanced technologies and working capital provide a framework for addressing current and future potential strategic vulnerabilities.

Success indicators for 2030

Below is a set of illustrative success indicators the EU could adopt to measure progress toward a robust, sustainable, and battle-ready drone manufacturing ecosystem by 2030. 

1. Production Capacity and Scale

Indicator: Annual Drone Production Volume

Target: Ability to produce 2+ million military-grade drones per year (tactical and operational levels), with at least 20% annual growth in manufacturing capacity.

2. Cost Efficiency and Affordability

Indicator: Per-Unit Manufacturing Cost

Target: 30–50% reduction in average cost of tactical drones relative to 2025 baseline, cost parity or advantage over major competing producers (like China).

3. R&D Agility

Indicator: Design Iteration Cycle Time

Target: Rapid prototype-to-production cycle of under 6 months for new or upgraded drone designs, adoption of continuous feedback loops from active military exercises or battlefield data.

4. AI and Advanced Systems Integration

Indicator: AI-Enabled Drone Fleet Ratio

Target: 50%+ of newly produced EU drones feature integrated AI capabilities for target recognition, electronic warfare, and advanced ISR.

5. Supply Chain Resilience and Localization

Indicator: Share of European (or Allied) Manufactured Components.

Target: < 20% reliance on non-allied supply chains for key components (motors, chips, sensors), with close to full self-sufficiency in critical systems (guidance units, cryptography modules).

6. Industrial Decentralization and Workforce
   
   Indicator: Distributed Manufacturing Network Coverage.Target: EU Member States (and key partners like Ukraine) host nodes in a decentralized production system.
   7. Partnership and Joint Ventures with Ukraine

   Indicator: EU–Ukraine Joint Production Output.

   Target: at least 30% of total EU drone acquisition sourced from, or co-produced with, Ukrainian manufacturers.  

   8. Battlefield Readiness and Operational Deployment

   Indicator: Standing Drone Fleet Readiness Level

   Target: 80%+ readiness rate of all EU drone assets (availability for immediate deployment). Each EU brigade-level unit maintains sufficient stock of tactical and strike drones to conduct sustained operations for 90+ days.

   9. Innovation Ecosystem and SME Participation

   Indicator: SME (Small and Medium Enterprise) & Startup Participation in Drone Supply Chain

   Target: 50% of drone-related R&D and production contracts awarded to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) or startups. Each Member State incentivizes local “kitchen-lab” innovation through grants and streamlined certification processes.

   10. Export Competitiveness and Market Share

   Indicator: Global Share of Drone Exports

   Target: Double the EU’s share of the global military drone export market compared to 2025 levels. Exports include both high-end systems and cost-effective tactical drones appealing to a wide range of international partners.